Thanks to household consumption and the full reactivation of concerts, air transport and tourism, The Colombian economy grew 7.5 percent in 2022; however, in the last quarter there was a notable slowdown, as revealed yesterday by Dane.
Parachute Piedad UrdinolaDirector of the statistical entity, this data reflects that the country is already stabilizing after the 7.3 percent drop in 2020, in the midst of the pandemic, and the subsequent recovery of 11 percent in 2021.
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Before the covid-19 shock, GDP increased 3.2 percent in 2019, grew 2.6 percent in 2018, and another 1.4 percent in 2017.
signs of slowdown
Although the economy comes from 7.8 percent in the first quarter of 2022, 12.3 percent in the second and 7.8 percent in the third, for the fourth already shown signs of a slowdown with a softer rise of just 2.9 percent.
“This is a clear sign that we are facing a slowdown process, which could have an effect in both 2023 and 2024,” stressed Bruce Mac Master, president of Andi.
In addition, this data was below the expectations of most market analysts. For example, BBVA Research projected 4.5 percent; Banco de la República, 4.1 percent, and Banco de Bogotá, 3.4 percent.
It must be remembered that due to high inflation and global uncertainty, Colombia’s growth projections have already dropped for 2023. While the World Bank forecasts that it would grow by 1.3 percent, the International Monetary Fund speaks of 1 ,1 percent.
At the moment, in the fourth quarter of 2022, three of the 12 branches of the economy that the Dane analyzes fell. The sector most affected due to the weather and the higher costs of inputs was agriculture, which lost 4.2 percent compared to the data for the same period of the previous year. What fell the most was coffee cultivation (-20.4 percent).
The construction branch lost another 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and, specifically, civil works (-12.8 percent). Mining and quarrying also fell 1.7 percent.
Other branches also slowed down their growth. For example, him trade cluster, transportation, accommodation and food services, which has been growing at double digits, barely grew 1 percent in the fourth quarter.
In the opinion of Jaime Alberto Cabal, president of the Fenalco merchants unionWhat is worrisome is the downward trend that has been observed since the end of the year and the beginning of this year. “It is evident that the economy lacked the revitalizing effect that occurred previously on days without VAT, since December was cancelled,” he said.
The level of labor informality reaches 60 percent in the country.
Juan Pablo Rueda. WEATHER Archive
consumption brake
This slowdown can also be seen on the spending side, because although household consumption grew by 9.5 percent throughout the year, in the fourth quarter it slowed down and increased by 4.3 percent.
What grew the most in 2022 was the purchase of semi-durable goods (15 percent), that is, cars, motorcycles, furniture, and cell phones, for example. The acquisition of services grew another 13.1 percent compared to 2021.
Concerts and gambling boosted GDP in 2022
After the pandemic, which prohibited crowds, concerts by artists such as Coldplay, Bad Bunny, Rosalía Miley Cyrus and Harry Styles, among others, were the great protagonists of the country’s growth in 2022.
According to Dane, the branch of the economy that grew the most last year was artistic, entertainment and recreation activities, with an increase of 37.9 percent compared to the figure for 2021, well above the others.
Within this, it also stands out the revival of games of luck and chance, especially sports betting with the World Cup in Qatar 2022, played from November 20 to December 18.
It is followed by far by the growth of the information and communications branch, with a variation of 14.2 percent; and that of commerce, transport and accommodation, which increased by 10.7 percent compared to 2021.
Specifically, what grew the most in this branch was transportation and storage (17.5 percent), followed by accommodation and food services (16.4 percent) and commerce; repair of vehicles and motorcycles (5.7 percent). “It is important to highlight the dynamism of air transport and tourism last yearthanks to the reopening after the pandemic”, said the director of the Dane.
The manufacturing industry increased another 9.8 percent in 2022 and the growth of textile products and the manufacture of wood products stood out.
Agriculture was the only branch that fell in 2022.
Juan Domínguez/EL TIEMPO File
The growth of the rest of the branches was more moderate. For example, financial and insurance activities will increase by 6.5 percent; construction 6.4 percent and the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 4.1 percent.
Those with the lowest growth were mining and quarrying, with 0.6 percent; and real estate activities, with 2.0 percent. yellow The only sector that ended the year in negative territory, with a fall of 1.9 percent, was agriculture.
According to Anif, weather conditions reduced harvests and the devaluation of the peso had an impact on the cost of inputs. This also meant a supply shock that led food inflation to settle at 27.81 percent.
